Neftyanaya Provintsiya
electronic peer-reviewed scholarly publication
Neftyanaya provintsiya No. 1(45), 2026
Forecast of oil production dynamics based on a probabilistic approach using integral characteristics of oil displacement by water
V.S. Shumko
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25689/NP.2026.1.132-145
V.S. Shumko
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25689/NP.2026.1.132-145
Abstract
The article provides a brief overview of domestic methods for predicting the value of recoverable oil reserves using displacement characteristics based on a probabilistic approach. The main attention is paid to the problems related to the reliability of the extrapolated result. A method for predicting the dynamics of oil production using a probabilistic approach based on integral displacement characteristics is considered.
In the course of current research, it has been established that it is necessary to take into account the discrepancy between the latest historical value of oil production dynamics and the first extrapolated indicator. In addition to the convergence criterion at the last historical point, it is necessary to monitor the value of the multiplicity of recoverable oil reserves: if the extrapolated recoverable oil reserves do not lie within the accepted range of the multiplicity of residual recoverable reserves, implausible indicators should be eliminated.
Key words:
integral characteristics of oil displacement by water; water cut curves; probabilistic approach; recoverable oil reserves; forecast; program; distribution function; dynamics of oil production
References
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Authors
V.S. Shumko, Assistant, Tyumen Industrial University
70 Melnikaite St., Tyumen, 625000, Russian Federation
E-mail: vlad-to72@mail.ru
For citation:
V.S. Shumko Prognoz dinamiki doby`chi nefti na osnove veroyatnostnogo podxoda s ispol`zovaniem integral`ny`x xarakteristik vy`tesneniya nefti vodoj [Forecast of oil production dynamics based on a probabilistic approach using integral characteristics of oil displacement by water]. Neftyanaya Provintsiya, No. 1(45), 2026. pp. 132-145. DOI https://doi.org/10.25689/NP.2026.1.132-145. EDN YSUOER (in Russian)
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