Neftyanaya Provintsiya
electronic peer-reviewed scholarly publication
Neftyanaya provintsiya No. 3(35), 2023

Forecasting the dynamics of oil flow rate changes using machinne learning methods

G.G. Faizrakhmanov, I.I. Khairullin, R.R. Khasanov, V.A. Sosnitskaya, R.V. Ryzhov
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25689/NP.2023.3.73-83

Abstract


This paper presents the experience of using machine learning methods to predict the technological indicators of the development of wells operating in carbonate reservoirs. The stages of creating, training a recurrent neural network with a long short-term memory in a test area (small deposit) and subsequent forecasting of oil flow rate by wells for a 3-6 month perspective are described. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach, a test was carried out on a control sample and the forecast results were compared with forecasting by alternative methods, and in particular with forecasts of the geological and hydrodynamic model, the dip curve and the material balance model. Modeling object carbonate deposits of oil field N, located in the Volga-Ural oil and gas province.

Key words:

machine learning, carbonate reservoirs, Tournaisian, recurrent neural network, water cut, oil production rate, dip curve, geological and hydrodynamic model, material balance, forecast

References

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Authors

G.G. Faizrakhmanov, PhD Candidate, Unconventional Reserves Development Department, Institute of Geology and Petroleum Technologies, Kazan Federal University
4/5, Kremlevskaya st., Kazan, 420008, Russian Federation
E-mail: galimfaizrakhmanov1995@gmail.com

I.I. Khairullin, PhD Candidate, Oil and Gas Field Development Department, Almetyevsk State Petroleum Institute
2, Lenin st., Almetyevsk, 423450, Russian Federation
E-mail: ilnur616@yandex.ru

R.R. Khasanov, PhD Candidate, Oil and Gas Field Development Department, Almetyevsk State Petroleum Institute
2, Lenin st., Almetyevsk, 423450, Russian Federation
E-mail: khasanovramzil@gmail.com

V.A. Sosnitskaya, PhD Candidate, Oil and Gas Field Development Department, Almetyevsk State Petroleum Institute
2, Lenin st., Almetyevsk, 423450, Russian Federation
E-mail: valeriyasosnitskaya@yandex.ru

R.V. Ryzhov, PhD Candidate, Oil and Gas Field Development Department, Almetyevsk State Petroleum Institute
2, Lenin st., Almetyevsk, 423450, Russian Federation
E-mail: rom.ryzhoff2011@yandex.ru

For citation:

G.G. Faizrakhmanov, I.I. Khairullin, R.R. Khasanov, V.A. Sosnitskaya, R.V. Ryzhov Prognozirovaniye dinamiki izmeneniya debita nefti s pomoshch'yu metodov mashinnogo obucheniya [Forecasting the dynamics of oil flow rate changes using machinne learning methods]. Neftyanaya Provintsiya, No. 3(35), 2023. pp. 73-83. DOI https://doi.org/10.25689/NP.2023.3.73-83. EDN PIFPLA (in Russian)

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